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It was Thailand's 18th coup d'état since 1932, bloodless for a change, and its leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin was at pains to present it as the kindest, cuddliest one yet?a "soft coup," it's being called. While smiling Thais handed flowers to soldiers, their Asian neighbors had more somber anniversaries to consider. Eighteen years to the day before the Thai coup, Burmese soldiers shot dead hundreds of prodemocracy protesters in Rangoon; 16 years before that, late dictator Ferdinand Marcos put the Philippines under martial law; and another seven years earlier, a general called Suharto seized power in Indonesia. Burmese and Filipinos, in particular, know what it's like to have tanks on their streets. Why, then, do so many of them support the Thai military's overthrow of Thaksin Shinawatra? The answer says a lot about the state of politics and democracy in many Asian countries?not much of it good.

Consider Burma, a dictatorship for almost half a century now. Ordinary Burmese have long despised Thaksin as an enemy of democracy. He cozied up to the generals, and once famously described the detention of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi as "reasonable enough." But ironically (tragically, really) ordinary Burmese who rejoice at Thaksin's departure will share a sentiment with their own oppressive rulers. Burma's generals will celebrate the Thai military's takeover, and the months of political deadlock that preceded it, because it proves what they've insisted all along: democracies don't work and civilians can't run countries. Burma is a large, ethnically diverse nation scarred by civil war, and the military has always presented itself as the only guarantee of national unity (while simultaneously running the country into the ground). The Thai coup will bolster its case.

Even in the region's democracies, General Sonthi's coup is widely welcomed. Filipinos?who endured 14 years of authoritarian rule under Marcos?see Thaksin's military ouster as a portent of embattled President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's own political demise. Arroyo was a big Thaksin fan. She applauded "Thaksinomics," as his pump-priming policies were termed, and even vowed to "do a Thaksin" on her country's drug dealers after he unleashed a killing spree in which more than 2,500 drug suspects died. But Arroyo's popularity slumped to record lows amid allegations that she cheated in the 2004 election. After the Thai coup, protesters in Manila waved placards showing Arroyo's face beside Thaksin's, with the message, "You're next."

But is she? With her rock-bottom popularity, Arroyo is now so dependent on the support of the Philippine military that many Filipinos might argue that a "soft coup" has already taken place in their country. Earlier this year Arroyo declared a brief state of emergency after supposedly foiling the latest in a series of plots to overthrow her. But a pro-Arroyo senator interviewed by TIME suggests the President is more likely to "do a Marcos" and declare martial law. "That's the only way for her to stay in power," he says.

With an ex-general as its first directly elected president, Indonesia is also a democracy where the military has immense influence. "The fact that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono repeatedly warns the military not to get involved in politics implies that the possibility and the worry are still there," wrote Rizal Sukma of Jakarta's Centre for Strategic and International Studies in the Jakarta Post recently.

The worry is real. Indonesia faces many of the same problems, such as rampant corruption, cited by Thailand's coupmakers as pretexts for seizing power. And like their Burmese counterparts, the Indonesian armed forces present themselves as the only institution that can hold a nation together?in this case, a fractious archipelago of 220 million people. Despite reforms designed to keep it out of politics, the Indonesian military remains highly resistant to the principle of civilian control.

That soldiers now run Thailand?and are powerful political players in Indonesia and the Philippines?doesn't prove (as Burma's generals might gloat) that democracy is dead, but that many Asian democracies are immature and fragile, with political systems incapable of guaranteeing smooth and legitimate transfers of power. Even if General Sonthi keeps his promise and returns power to civilian hands, the damage is done. Neither the dictatorial style of Thaksin's rule, nor the manner of his departure, are worth celebration. Sukma believes the Thai coup will embolden "antidemocratic forces" across the region. "They are all laughing at democracy now," he warns. Democracy might yet have the last laugh, but in much of Asia that day remains a long way off.

• Andrew Marshall
• Thailand's coup sends a dangerous message to Asia's enemies of democracy